Video: A critical level for Bitcoin?
  • Julie

Video: A critical level for Bitcoin?

In this video, you will find the latest news about Bitcoin in recent days, but also an analysis of the market and various trajectories to follow in the coming days and weeks.



What is happening ?


After recently touching up the support of the $3200, an area vigorously defended by the "bulls", the BTC is recovering slightly since this Saturday.

The main question remains: are we in a triangle of downward consolidation or are we in the configuration of a double bottom, or have we reached a bottom, or even a double bottom and are we at the beginning of a new upward rally?

Unfortunately, it will be the next few days that will be able to tell us.


From a fundamental point of view...


With the arrival of Nasdaq on the futures, and the stability that it could bring to the market, with also the advances concerning the SEC, the development of Custody solutions by Coinbase (listing XRP, OMG, BAT, 0X etc....) all this news is obviously very good. But this little trick is still missing to enable the market to have a real trend reversal and to be able to recognize growth in the medium and long term.

Since December 7, the lowest point reached in more than 14 months with the $3,200, the price has risen to the support of the consolidation triangle we were talking about. Once hit, prices fell slightly, as you can see on the graph, currently attacking Fibonacci's retracement in the $3454 area.





... To a technical point of view


Stochastic is in oversold, MACD and WaveTrends have just crossed downward, volumes that are also down, a MA 20 that remains below the MA 50, although it is getting closer.

In short, there are indications that the price is still in a downward trend, and may still encounter a further decline in the hours and days to come. Indeed, a break in the resistance of the triangle still seems quite complicated for the moment.

In the event that this resistance breakage could still occur, it would be good to position yourself long from $3600 and aim first at $3700 and try to reach a target of up to $4400 in the last instance.

As we were telling you, from a graphical point of view, we are again in a triangle of downward consolidation, which combined with the famous decrease in volumes, price stabilization also combined with a MACD that remains growing, and a RSI that is also growing and oversold.

This could indicate that in the short term, we could reach the $3300 zone.

In other words, the support of the downward consolidation triangle and if this support is broken, in this case, position itself in short until 3200$ (which is the previous support and actually a very solid support) and at that time effectively analyze to see if we will have to deal with a symmetrical or asymmetrical double bottom, or a new break in the price to reach a lower level.


What if we reach $3,200?


Actually, it will depend mainly on the reason (technical or fundamental), and the time it took to reach this support. But in case $3200 is broken and we reach $3140, we will aim for a short position to reach $3000 at first and continue with a trailing profit while trying to reach $2800.

In the opposite case where the 3200$ is a support that resists and we see an increase of more than 2% above the 3200$, our team will then position itself long, waiting for the double bottom with initially in line to target the $3350 and then the $3500 in trailing profit.

In the medium term, we remain with a neutral opinion, in a market that is still searching and that does not yet know if the current support of 3200$ is a solid enough support for the future. There is this side of the surrender that has not yet been fully accepted in the market.


A cause-and-effect relationship with the traditional market?


Finally, we would like to quickly talk about the traditional market, and its increasingly unstable situation, which leads all experts to fear the worst for the coming year. This is an element to be taken into account when trading in the cryptocurrency market. To the extent that this will automatically have an impact on the market we are trading.

After weeks of uncertainty in the stock markets and a recovery in early December, investors still have reason to be concerned.

Indeed, it seems that the US bond markets are sending out new warning signals that the global economy could unfortunately take a new negative turn. In short, we know that when 10-year bond yields fall below 2-year bond yields, this is a very important indicator that a recession is coming. The fact is that we are now approaching it and we have just had an inversion for 3 and 5 year bonds, which is a first in the last decade.


Although the gap between 3 and 5 year bonds is not as wide as 2 and 10 year bonds, this is not a very good sign. In this graph, we can see that even if an inversion from 3 to 5 does not always lead to an immediate recession, it can still be considered an early indicator.

This should not surprise those who are closely following the market. Because as you may have read on different information sites, all prospects are quite negative for the years 2019 and 2020. Indeed, it seems that we are coming to the end of a bull cycle for the classic market. So knowing now how this recession on the classic market will impact the cryptos market, and it’ll be the subject of a different video which we hope to be able to post soon.


We wish you a very pleasant day !

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